A forecast probability is not an asset price
Keep community belief, practice-point contract prices and observable financial markets distinct.
For Public,Students,Researchers · Reviewed 2026-10-09
A forecast answers a precisely defined question about an event by a deadline. An asset price reflects transactions in an instrument with its own rights and market conditions. Stupid Pro’s practice-point exchange is a learning environment. Its displayed contract values and community forecasts should not be interpreted as a financial quote, a promise of accuracy or an instruction to transact elsewhere.
Start by specifying the event, threshold, source, timezone and resolution rule. A question about a month-end closing value is different from a question about any intraday touch. If the threshold or source is ambiguous, a seemingly precise probability adds little research value. Record the forecast before the outcome and preserve revisions rather than replacing the original judgment.
Evaluation needs repeated resolved questions. For a binary event, the Brier score is the squared difference between the stated probability and the outcome encoded as zero or one; average across the chosen evaluation set. Lower is better for that score, but performance must be interpreted against a relevant baseline, selection rules and sample size. One correct prediction does not establish sustained skill.
Our suggested review also examines calibration: among many forecasts near a given probability, how often did the event occur? Compare similar horizons and avoid silently dropping inconvenient unresolved or invalid questions. A valuable research record explains why a belief changed and what evidence drove the update. It gives readers a way to examine judgment quality without confusing crowd participation with independently validated forecasting performance.
Questions to investigate
- Can two readers resolve the question identically from its rule?
- Which baseline and resolved sample are used for evaluation?
- Does the displayed number describe votes, a point contract or a stated probability?